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probability

probability

by Shuchi Ojha -
Number of replies: 1
2 persons,whose probabilities of speaking the truth are 2/3 and 5/6 respectively, assert that a specified ticket has been drawn out of a bag containing 15 tickets: what is the probability of the  truth of the assertion?
In reply to Shuchi Ojha

Re: Probability

by Manish Verma -

This is the application of Bayes' Theorem.

In Bayes' theorem application some event already takes place. Here, the assertion has been made.

Let A denote assertion, T truth and F false. According to the the assertion being true or not true, the specified ticket is drawn or not drawn.

\(P(T/A)=\frac{P(T)P(A/T)}{P(T)P(A/T)+P(F)P(A/F)}\)

While evaluating P(A/T) & P(A/F), both persons need to be considered.

For example, P(A/T)=2/3 x 5/6